Peri-operative delirium risk/prevention thresholds: NICE vs AGS vs RCoA (2025)

Compare Risk identification & prevention thresholds for Delirium (peri-operative) across NICE, AGS, and RCoA. Built for Older adults. Setting: Secondary. Urgency: Routine.

Why this threshold matters

Clear thresholds help clinicians answer "when do I act?" for delirium (peri-operative), aligning expectations between NICE, AGS, and RCoA. Use this side-by-side view to decide when to refer, escalate, monitor, or initiate treatment.

Decision areaRisk identification & prevention thresholds
SpecialtyPeri-op / Geriatrics
PopulationOlder adults
SettingSecondary
Decision typeCriteria
UrgencyRoutine

Clinical Context

Peri-operative delirium affects approximately 15-50% of older adults undergoing major surgery, with incidence rising to 60% in high-risk populations such as those with pre-existing cognitive impairment. This common post-operative complication significantly increases hospital length of stay, healthcare costs, and mortality risk. The key clinical challenge lies in balancing early intervention against unnecessary resource allocation, particularly given the multifactorial nature of delirium risk factors.

Getting prevention thresholds right is critical because delayed or missed intervention can lead to prolonged delirium duration, increased fall risk, functional decline, and higher rates of institutionalisation. NICE adopts a comprehensive risk-stratification approach, AGS emphasises geriatric-specific vulnerabilities, while RCoA focuses on anaesthetic and intra-operative modifiable factors. Understanding these philosophical differences helps clinicians apply the most appropriate framework for individual patients.

Guideline Scope and Authority

Guideline body Primary focus Typical setting Publication/update
NICE Comprehensive peri-operative care including delirium prevention Secondary care 2024
AGS Geriatric-specific peri-operative optimisation Secondary care 2023
RCoA Anaesthetic management and intra-operative factors Secondary care 2025

NICE provides the broadest framework suitable for general peri-operative teams, while AGS offers specialised guidance for geriatricians managing complex older adults. RCoA delivers essential anaesthetic-specific considerations. Cross-reference between guidelines when managing high-risk patients or when specialty input is required.

Guideline comparison

Guideline body Position Population & urgency
NICE Position on Risk identification & prevention thresholds for Delirium (peri-operative) Older adults | Urgency: Routine | Setting: Secondary
AGS Position on Risk identification & prevention thresholds for Delirium (peri-operative) Older adults | Urgency: Routine | Setting: Secondary
RCoA Position on Risk identification & prevention thresholds for Delirium (peri-operative) Older adults | Urgency: Routine | Setting: Secondary

Core Threshold Definitions

Risk factor threshold NICE AGS RCoA Notes
Age requiring prevention ≥65 years ≥70 years or ≥65 with frailty All adults with risk factors AGS uses lower threshold for frail patients
Cognitive impairment (MMSE) <24/30 <25/30 Clinical judgement NICE more stringent, RCoA contextual
Number of risk factors ≥2 major factors ≥1 major + 1 minor Anaesthetic risk focus Different weighting systems
Procedure risk level Major surgery Major/emergency surgery Duration >2 hours RCoA includes temporal element
Clinical alignment: All three bodies agree on baseline delirium assessment for patients ≥65 undergoing major surgery. The key difference lies in risk factor weighting - NICE uses quantitative thresholds, AGS emphasises geriatric syndromes, while RCoA focuses on modifiable anaesthetic factors.

When to Monitor/Act - Detailed Intervals

NICE Approach: Recommends pre-operative risk assessment 4-6 weeks before elective surgery using validated tools. For high-risk patients, implement multi-component interventions starting 2-4 weeks pre-operatively. Post-operative monitoring should occur at 4-hour intervals for the first 48 hours, then daily until discharge. Escalate frequency if any delirium symptoms appear.

AGS Approach: Advocates for comprehensive geriatric assessment 4-8 weeks pre-operatively, with frailty-focused interventions. Post-operative monitoring should be hourly for the first 6 hours in recovery, then 4-hourly for 72 hours. AGS specifically recommends night-time checks for sundowning symptoms in patients with cognitive impairment.

RCoA Approach: Focuses on intra-operative and immediate post-operative periods. Recommends anaesthetic review 2 weeks pre-operatively for high-risk patients. Post-operative monitoring in recovery should be continuous for the first hour, then 30-minute intervals for 4 hours. Regular assessments should continue 4-hourly for 24 hours post-emergence from anaesthesia.

Key Difference: NICE and AGS emphasise prolonged pre-operative preparation, while RCoA concentrates intensive monitoring in the immediate peri-operative period. Combined, these approaches provide comprehensive coverage from pre-assessment through recovery.

Escalation Triggers / "When to Refer"

Escalation trigger NICE AGS RCoA
CAM-positive assessment Immediate multi-disciplinary review Geriatrician referral within 4 hours Anaesthetist review + consider ICU
Agitation/aggression Rapid tranquillisation protocol Non-pharmacological first then low-dose antipsychotics Anaesthetic team for sedation review
Failed non-pharmacological measures Psychiatry liaison within 24 hours Geriatric psychiatry same day Consider dexmedetomidine infusion
Persistent >48 hours Formal delirium management plan Comprehensive medication review Re-evaluate pain management
Hypoactive delirium Regular 4-hour assessments Geriatrician review within 12 hours Monitor for airway compromise
Clinical Nuance: The most significant difference occurs in pharmacological management - AGS strongly prefers non-pharmacological approaches first, while RCoA considers earlier anaesthetic-led intervention for severe agitation. NICE takes a balanced middle ground with rapid access to psychiatric support.

Clinical Scenarios

Scenario 1: Borderline Cognitive Impairment

Patient: 78-year-old female, MMSE 25/30, scheduled for elective hip replacement. No previous delirium history.

Analysis: NICE would not mandate prevention (MMSE ≥24), AGS would recommend geriatric assessment (MMSE <26), while RCoA would focus on anaesthetic optimisation. The most appropriate approach combines AGS's comprehensive assessment with RCoA's anaesthetic planning, implementing basic preventive measures given the borderline score.

Scenario 2: Multiple Comorbidities

Patient: 82-year-old male with hypertension, diabetes, mild cognitive impairment (MMSE 22/30), undergoing emergency laparotomy.

Analysis: All three bodies would classify as high-risk. NICE recommends standard multi-component prevention, AGS emphasises geriatric-led optimisation, RCoA focuses on intra-operative management. The optimal approach involves simultaneous implementation of all strategies with geriatrician leadership given the emergency context and multiple vulnerabilities.

Risk Prediction and Decision Tools

Several validated tools assist clinicians in delirium risk stratification:

PRE-DELIRIC: NICE recommends this ICU prediction model for high-risk surgical patients. Calculates delirium risk based on 10 pre-operative and early post-operative factors. AGS suggests modification for geriatric populations by adding frailty measures.

CAM and 4AT: All three bodies endorse these assessment tools. CAM provides diagnostic confirmation, while 4AT offers rapid screening (≤2 minutes). RCoA specifically recommends 4AT in recovery areas for all patients ≥65.

Clinical judgement factors: When formal tools aren't available, consider: polypharmacy (≥5 medications), visual/hearing impairment, dehydration markers, infection presence, and metabolic disturbances. These factors increase predictive accuracy beyond age and cognitive scores alone.

Common Pitfalls in Delirium Prevention

  1. Over-reliance on pharmacological prevention: Routinely prescribing antipsychotics without individual risk assessment can cause unnecessary side effects. Reserve for highest-risk patients with clear indications.
  2. Under-assessment of hypoactive delirium: Missing the quiet, withdrawn presentation common in older adults leads to delayed intervention. Implement systematic screening rather than reliance on obvious agitation.
  3. Failing to address sensory impairments: Not providing hearing aids or glasses post-operatively significantly increases delirium risk. Ensure sensory support continues throughout hospital stay.
  4. Not adjusting for emergency surgery: Applying elective prevention timelines to emergency cases misses critical intervention windows. Implement accelerated assessment and prevention protocols.
  5. Delaying non-pharmacological measures: Waiting for specialist input before starting orientation, mobility, and cognitive stimulation. Basic preventive measures should begin immediately upon risk identification.
  6. Missing medication contributions: Overlooking anticholinergic burden, benzodiazepines, or opioid doses as reversible causes. Comprehensive medication review is essential.
  7. Inadequate post-discharge planning: Focusing only on in-hospital prevention without community transition plans. Delirium risk persists weeks after surgery.

Practical Takeaways

How to use this page

  • Start with the decision area: risk identification & prevention thresholds for Delirium (peri-operative).
  • Note urgency: treat recommendations tagged Routine as the ceiling for response times.
  • When bodies differ, document the rationale in the notes and follow local governance for Secondary.
  • Use the threshold index to jump to related conditions and maintain consistency across teams.

Comprehensive Clinical Guidance

  • ✓ Use NICE as default for general peri-operative teams in secondary care
  • ✓ Apply AGS guidelines when managing patients ≥70 or with frailty markers
  • ✓ Consult RCoA for anaesthetic-specific modifiable risk factors
  • ✓ Key threshold: implement prevention for all patients ≥65 undergoing major surgery
  • ✓ Red flag: CAM-positive assessment requires immediate multi-disciplinary review
  • ✓ Don't miss: hypoactive delirium presentation in older females
  • ✓ Remember: polypharmacy review is as important as cognitive assessment
  • ✓ Consider 4AT screening for all at-risk patients in recovery
  • ✓ Timing: begin non-pharmacological prevention immediately upon risk identification
  • ✓ Documentation: record rationale when choosing between conflicting guidelines

Sources

Refer to the full guidelines for exact wording and local adaptations. This summary is for rapid orientation and multidisciplinary alignment.

Full Guideline References

Disclaimer: This comparison is intended for clinical decision support and education. Always refer to the full published guidelines for definitive recommendations and the most up-to-date evidence. Clinical decisions should be individualised based on patient context and preferences, following local governance frameworks.